There are different degrees of hidden impact of weather and temperature on football game results and NFL betting lines, particularly on scoring totals.
In addition, the weather influences the NFL game lines, which is also a big, largely ignored factor in NFL game results.
The NFL has always stood out for its unwavering commitment to playing in all types of weather.
There have been plenty of games in adverse weather conditions during the history of the NFL.
Evidently, the Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Championship game on December 31, 1967, at Lambeau Field was the coldest NFL game ever played.
In addition, the temperature during the game was -13 degrees Celsius, with a wind chill of -48 degrees.
Although bettors frequently study team performance, injuries, and strategies, weather conditions and temperature fluctuations can significantly affect results.
Gaining insight into how these elements affect the game can give you a competitive advantage when you are betting.
The wind in Buffalo is howling! Early view from the booth via @patsradio pic.twitter.com/t7dsulx9er
— 98.5 The Sports Hub (@985TheSportsHub) December 6, 2021
The Impact of Weather on NFL Games and How It Affects Betting Lines
Wind
One of the most significant factors affecting NFL games is wind, especially when it comes to passing and kicking.
Moreover, strong winds that exceed 15 mph can hinder passing efficiency, making it more difficult for kickers to make long field goals and for quarterbacks to throw deep.
For instance, the 2008 Bills vs. Browns game had winds of over fifty miles per hour, which resulted in numerous missed kicks.
As a result, teams with potent rushing offenses and defenses frequently win games with high wind speeds.
At 15 mph or higher, wind can begin to affect the passing game, but once we reach 25 mph or higher, the numbers start to decline significantly.
This table illustrates how strong winds affect passing and the game as a whole based on their speed.
| Wind | Impact On Passing |
| 15+ mph and Clear | 430.9 combined passing yards |
| 15+ mph and Precipitation | 347.2 combined passing yards (-24.1%) |
| 25+ mph and Clear | 324.6 combined passing yards |
| 25+ mph and Precipitation | 293.0 combined passing yards (-10.8%, down -36.6% overall) |
In the end, this usually leads to games with lower scores and affects the over/under-betting lines.
When strong winds are predicted, sportsbooks reduce totals; for example, a total that started at 48.5 points might fall to 43 or less if strong winds are predicted.
Furthermore, insiders and sports analysts advise betting on the under when wind speeds surpass 15 mph.
Snow and Rain
Snow and rain are two more weather-related factors that greatly impact NFL games. They make scoring hard for offenses, especially during the passing game.
Furthermore, the wet surfaces make it difficult for receivers to run accurate routes and for quarterbacks to grasp and throw the ball accurately.
Even though field goals convert at roughly 76% in snowy conditions, passing production can drop by 25% during periods of heavy snowfall.
Furthermore, compared to the standard field goal conversion rate of 85%, that is 9% lower while playing in snowy conditions.
Additionally, Research shows that wet conditions, like rain, reduce passing production by about 12%
It is also important to note that when rain is present, the FG% increases to about 85%.
Teams with strong offensive lines and power rushing attacks have an advantage in rainy conditions, while turnover-prone teams become riskier bets.
Temperature
Meteorologists generally consider a temperature range of 55 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit ideal for this weather condition.
Furthermore, there are usually no notable variations in performance, making temperature straightforward.
Cold weather, particularly below freezing, can affect ball handling and shorten player endurance.
In most cold-weather games, however, teams shift away from passing in the second half.
Furthermore, bettors have noted that games start slowly and that live under bets can start to gain value after the first quarter.
Similarly, intense heat can lead to cramps, exhaustion, and dehydration, impairing team endurance and performance.
Live overs on team totals are profitable in hot weather games due to higher fourth-quarter scoring.
Additionally, depending on the team and their style of play, defensive fatigue helps fast-paced teams.
However, meteorologist Kevin Roth says temperature has little bearing on scoring, so it does not affect the betting odds.
They’ve got heated fields, heated benches. They’ve got hand warmers!!
On the other hand, it also depends on how well teams and players perform in various weather scenarios and challenges that they have previously faced.
Weather Impacts on Betting Line
This table summarizes the impact of weather on NFL betting lines and their impact on games.
| Weather Condition | Impact on Game | Impact on Betting Line |
| Wind | Typically, wind speeds exceeding 15 mph or more during NFL games hinder players’ ability to score long field goals and decrease passing efficiency. | In these circumstances, it is advised to back teams with potent run offenses and defenses and put money on the Under. |
| Snow and Rain | Heavy snowfall impairs visibility, slows down offenses, and significantly reduces field goal range. Similarly, rain during games increases fumbles and makes it more difficult to throw accurately. | In the event of rain, wager Under on passing yards, Over on rushing yards, and Under on total points; in the event of snow, wager Over on rushing props. |
| Temperature | Playing in hot weather causes defensive players to tire more quickly, which increases late-game scoring. In contrast, cold temperatures make it harder for players to handle the ball and reduce their stamina, which leads to more short passes and runs. | Spreads may favor home teams with better conditioning, and totals may slightly rise. |
When setting lines, oddsmakers consider the weather, but changes in the market can offer profit opportunities.
In addition, bettors can profit from mispriced lines by monitoring forecasts and evaluating a team’s ability to adjust to changing weather conditions.
Keep an eye on the weather before the game. If experienced wagerers react to it, sportsbooks may modify spreads and totals.
Additionally, consider how each team’s roster makeup and style of play fit the anticipated conditions.
Additional Information
- The largest wager in the history of the NFL Super Bowl was 345,000 on the Chiefs -1 (-115, bettor purchased half a point) at BetMGM.
- The coldest NFL game, which took place on December 31, 1967 was won by the packers 21-17.
- In 2014, the Buffalo Bills’ home game against the New York Jets had to be rescheduled to Detroit due to a severe snowstorm.
