The NFL holds the Draft every April, bringing promise, hope, and million-dollar dreams.
Teams believe they have discovered the next franchise quarterback, unstoppable pass rusher, or game-changing wide receiver and stake their futures on the top picks.
While fans rejoice, commentators laud the choices, and jerseys sell out, teams don’t always turn the No. 1 pick into a star as expected.
Some players will already be out of the league in the upcoming years, and others will never even make it past their rookie contract.
Throughout history, many highly anticipated prospects have fallen short of expectations, whether it is a quarterback who struggles under duress or an injury-prone player.
Although this may not always be the case, the NFL has a clear history of top draft picks failing and unbelievable busts.
The upcoming NFL Draft makes this discussion even more pertinent.
NFL Bust and Why Top Draft Picks Fail
Although there is no clear explanation for why top draft picks do not work out, various analysts and individuals have differing views.
Nonetheless, most supporters think it could be due to factors such as mismatches with the team, injuries, lack of enthusiasm, problems off the field, and mental pressure.
According to research, roughly 8.5% of first-round selections begin in one season or less.
Furthermore, only 1% of the league’s top draft selections are regarded as legendary; these players are future Hall of Famers and multi-year All-Pros.
These statistics demonstrate that only about two to three of the roughly 260 players selected each year will have careers worthy of the Hall of Fame.
Leaving the remaining NFL draft picks to fail or have a forgettable playing career.
Here are some main reasons why many college football players never make it in the NFL and why top draft picks fail:
1. Injuries
The NFL is prone to injuries, and many top draft picks suffer severe injuries at the start of their careers.
Additionally, these injuries have the potential to hinder their progress and reduce their effectiveness, which ultimately leads to their fall.
Some players possess physical gifts but suffer injuries that prevent them from reaching their full potential.
An early injury that changes a player’s career can impact their performance, confidence, and even mental health.
Ki-Jana Carter is one of the best examples of a top draft pick failing because of an injury.
Additionally, the Cincinnati Bengals selected him first overall as a running back in the 1995 NFL Draft.
At Penn State, Carter dominated as a running back, with fans predicting he would be the next big NFL star.
However, the injury ruined his career after he tore his ACL in his first preseason game.
Although he played for seven seasons, his stats of 1,144 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns are not what you would expect from a first-round pick.
2. Expectations and Mental Strain
There are high expectations from teams, supporters, and the media for first-round picks, particularly those in the top 10.
Additionally, some players aren’t prepared for that scrutiny right after graduating from college, and they break under the strain.
Early struggles cause players to lose confidence quickly, leading to a downward spiral.
In addition, trolls from the media and fans these days further strain players’ mental health.
Todd Marinovich exemplifies a highly drafted NFL player who faced immense pressure and stress.
In 1991, the Raiders selected Marianowitz as a quarterback with the 24th overall pick in the NFL draft.
His father, Marv Marinovich, raised him to be the ideal quarterback by restricting his access to junk food, social interactions, and leisure time.
As a “robo-QB” expected to rule the NFL, fans and the NFL community placed tremendous pressure on him.
Furthermore, the stress led to severe drug abuse, which he later acknowledged was his coping mechanism.
Addiction and mental health problems cut his career short after just two seasons (1991–1992).
3. Problems Off-Field and Substance Abuse
While on-field factors like injuries and mental strain contribute to NFL busts, off-field issues like substance abuse and personal problems are also major contributors to their failure.
Some athletes make poor lifestyle decisions that can ruin their careers; excessive spending, excessive partying, or legal issues can all be destructive.
Others struggle with their newfound wealth and fame, which causes them to become distracted and lose focus on the game.
Moreover, bad financial choices, legal problems, or private matters can unexpectedly ruin a career.
Johnny Manziel perfectly illustrates an NFL player who was highly drafted but failed due to off-field distractions.
All eyes were on him when the Cleveland Browns selected him as a quarterback with the 22nd overall pick in 2014.
Oddly enough, Manziel was a star before he joined the NFL. As a freshman at Texas A&M, he won the Heisman Trophy.
However, he led a party lifestyle, prioritizing drinking, partying, and nightlife over football.
He also faced personal and legal problems, including multiple arrests, accusations of domestic abuse, and admitting to battling addiction.
His career ended after he started just eight games, threw seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, and was cut from the league by 2016.
He is on the list of top draft picks who fail because he showed little interest in improving his skills and prioritized substance abuse.
4. Incompatible with the System or Team
A quarterback accustomed to a spread offense in college may find it difficult to adjust to a pro-style offense.
This is just one example of how a great college player can end up in the wrong system.
Further, coaching changes, team instability, or a shortage of supporting players (receivers, offensive line, etc.) can hamper development.
One example of a player who was cut because he was incompatible with the team is quarterback Matt Leinart (No. 10 overall pick, 2006, Arizona Cardinals).
Although Leinart flourished in USC’s pro-style offense with top talent surrounding him, his success in college did not translate to the NFL.
Leinart struggled in Arizona’s system as his skill set did not suit the Cardinals’ offense under head coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Despite being a Top-10 pick, the team benched him for a journeyman and lost his job to Kurt Warner, who brought the team back to life and helped them win a Super Bowl.
Sadly, he played as a backup in Oakland and Houston but never found his calling or earned a starting position.
As we can see, players can avoid most challenges, but these are some primary reasons why top draft picks fail.
The Greatest Draft Pick Busts Ever
Throughout NFL history, numerous high-profile draft picks have failed and eventually left the league.
Likewise, here is a list of the NFL’s top ten worst draft pick busts ever, along with the reason and the draft pick:
| Player | Draft Pick | Reason |
| JaMarcus Russell | 1st overall, 2007 by Oakland Raiders | Mandarich, dubbed “The Best Offensive Line Prospect Ever,” was a steroid-fueled bust who left the Packers after three years. |
| Ryan Leaf | 2nd overall, 1998 by San Diego Chargers | Due to injuries, poor play, and a negative attitude, his career lasted only four seasons. |
| Tony Mandarich | 2nd overall, 1989 by Green Bay Packers | Although the Jets believed they were getting a dominant pass rusher, Gholston was one of the worst defensive busts in history. |
| Brian Bosworth | 1st round, 1987 Supplemental Draft by Seattle Seahawks | He played just three injury-plagued seasons before retiring, he had more hype than skill. |
| Trent Richardson | 3rd overall, 2012 by Cleveland Browns | He was so bad that the Browns traded him to the Colts for a first-round pick, and he was out after just three seasons. |
| Vernon Gholston | 6th overall, 2008 by New York Jets | He showed promise, but he only played for two seasons and struggled with his work ethic and off the field. |
| Tim Couch | 1st overall, 1999 by Cleveland Browns | After 59 touchdowns, 67 interceptions, and five difficult years, he never returned to the NFL after 2003. |
| Johnny Manziel | 22nd overall, 2014 by Cleveland Browns | He showed promise, but he only played for two seasons and struggled off the field and with his work ethic. |
| Matt Leinart | 10th overall, 2006 by Arizona Cardinals | He was benched for Kurt Warner, never earned a starting position, and only threw 15 touchdowns in his career. |
| Akili Smith | 3rd overall, 1999 by Cincinnati Bengals | He played in only 17 games over four seasons, throwing 5 touchdowns and 13 interceptions before disappearing from the NFL. |
Additional Information
- Russell, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, is frequently regarded as one of the biggest busts in NFL history.
- The 2025 NFL Draft is scheduled to take place from April 24 to April 26, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
- On February 8, 1936, the NFL held its inaugural Draft in Philadelphia. Then-NFL commissioner Bert Bell organized the draft, which took place in a hotel ballroom.
